Major Canadian and international forecasters increasingly price a near-term BOC rate rise, but timing and follow-through are disputed. Several banks (BMO, Scotiabank, MUFG, BMO, HSBC, Manulife, Oxford Economics and others) see the BOC moving this month or by Dec–Jan, with a subset expecting two hikes (this month and again in Dec or by end‑March), a path that would lift CAD and tighten financial conditions. MUFG warns a October hike would fuel bets on another move in December. Manulife and Oxford

Major Canadian and international forecasters increasingly price a near-term BOC rate rise, but timing and follow-through are disputed. Several banks (BMO, Scotiabank, MUFG, BMO, HSBC, Manulife, Oxford Economics and others) see the BOC moving this month or by Dec–Jan, with a subset expecting two hikes (this month and again in Dec or by end‑March), a path that would lift CAD and tighten financial conditions. MUFG warns a October hike would fuel bets on another move in December. Manulife and Oxford explicitly forecast hikes this month and in December; KPMG says it would not support an October hike but would not call it a policy error if taken. Citigroup, Standard Chartered and TD Securities see limited case for an immediate move given soft recent inflation and demand; TD and others judge current market pricing too aggressive. Reuters poll: of 34 economists 19 expect a hike to 2.50% this month; in a separate sample 16 of 29 expect two overnight‑rate increases by end‑March. Wall Street Journal polling also shows a majority expecting the BOC to raise rates for the first time in over three years, with most anticipating at least one additional hike thereafter.