Major Canadian and international forecasters increasingly price a near-term BOC
rate rise, but timing and follow-through are disputed. Several banks (BMO,
Scotiabank, MUFG, BMO, HSBC, Manulife, Oxford Economics and others) see the BOC
moving this month or by Dec–Jan, with a subset expecting two hikes (this month
and again in Dec or by end‑March), a path that would lift CAD and tighten
financial conditions. MUFG warns an October hike would fuel bets on another move
in December. Manulife and Oxford explicit forecast hikes this month and in
December; KPMG says it would not support an October hike but would not call it a
policy error if taken. Citigroup, Standard Chartered and TD Securities see
limited case for an immediate move given soft recent inflation and demand; TD
and others judge current market pricing too aggressive. Reuters poll: of 34
economists 19 expect a hike to 2.50% this month; in a separate sample 16 of 29
expect two overnight‑rate increases by end‑March. Wall Street Journal polling
also shows a majority expecting the BOC to raise rates for the first time in
over three years, with most anticipating at least one additional hike
thereafter.
