Refinitiv, citing seven industry sources, reports Russian authorities have issued permits allowing vessels carrying export grain to exit the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait into the Black Sea. These are the first clearances since maritime traffic was suspended on July 10 after a Ukrainian drone attack. Permits run through Nov. 15 and vessels will be escorted by a naval flotilla while transiting the Black Sea.

創業板指漲超2%，深成指漲1.3%，滬指漲0.66%。科創50指數漲超2%。全市場上漲個股近4000只。

Markets largely expect a Fed pause but retain sizable odds of a December hike. 1) Messaging on a pause: whether officials frame a hold as temporary—awaiting more data—or as evidence policy is already sufficiently restrictive will be the primary market hinge. 2) Inflation pass‑through: US Sep CPI +3.7% YoY, core CPI +2.6% YoY; the Fed’s view on whether energy-driven price moves are spilling into services, goods and inflation expectations will influence the case for further tightening. 3) Forward‑guidance tradeoff: a policymaker who has repeatedly declined to pre‑judge future meetings again refused on Oct. 16 to outline a policy path; markets will test whether clear guidance can be conveyed without committing to timing. 4) Yields and financial conditions: elevated long Treasury yields and rising funding costs are tightening housing and other rate‑sensitive sectors; whether the Fed treats tighter financial conditions as a partial substitute for hikes is market‑relevant. 5) AI’s dual effects: officials note AI capex may boost near‑term demand while productivity gains are longer dated; the Fed’s assessment of short‑term inflationary impulse versus longer‑term disinflation matters for rates. 6) Political pressure ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms: calls for rate cuts from political leaders raise focus on whether the Fed will publicly defend independence or avoid political commentary.