CITIC Securities research note: 1) US political contest likely to play out along three main fault lines over the next two years—monitor intra-party factional battles and the possibility of changes to Democratic congressional leadership. 2) AI and data‑center policy: aggressive federal regulation nationwide remains unlikely, but state election outcomes are the more direct risk for data‑center siting, triggering project re‑location and shifts in who bears electricity and grid costs. 3) War and ext

CITIC Securities research note: 1) US political contest likely to play out along three main fault lines over the next two years—monitor intra-party factional battles and the possibility of changes to Democratic congressional leadership. 2) AI and data‑center policy: aggressive federal regulation nationwide remains unlikely, but state election outcomes are the more direct risk for data‑center siting, triggering project re‑location and shifts in who bears electricity and grid costs. 3) War and external policy: Congress is unlikely to directly constrain presidential military decisions, but intensified partisan battles over domestic policy could drain Trump’s strategic bandwidth, potentially raising his incentive to preserve a stable external environment. 4) Other policy areas: healthcare could become a negotiating lever; major change to energy, immigration, tariffs, and manufacturing reshoring appears unlikely—tariff policy is expected to remain stable.