CITIC Securities research note: 1) US political contest likely to play out along
three main fault lines over the next two years—monitor intra-party factional
battles and the possibility of changes to Democratic congressional leadership.
2) AI and data‑center policy: aggressive federal regulation remains nationwide
unlikely, but state election outcomes are the more direct risk for data‑center
sitting, triggering project re‑location and shifts in who bears electricity and
grid costs. 3) War and external policy: Congress is unlikely to directly
constrain presidential military decisions, but intensify partisan battles over
domestic policy could drain Trump’s strategic bandwidth, potentially raising his
incentive to preserve a stable external environment. 4) Other policy areas:
healthcare could become a negotiating lever; major change to energy,
immigration, tariffs, and manufacturing reshoring appear unlikely—tariff policy
is expected to remain stable.
