香港恆生指數10月12日（週一）收盤上漲59.85點，漲幅0.25%，報24271.2點； 香港恆生科技指數10月12日（週一）收盤下跌28.27點，跌幅0.67%，報4169.57點； 國企指數10月12日（週一）收盤上漲20.7點，漲幅0.25%，報8168.57點； 紅籌指數10月12日（週一）收盤下跌4.21點，跌幅0.1%，報4044.74點。

Madison Investment head of fixed income Mike Sanders said investors closely watch the 10-year US Treasury yield as the benchmark risk-free rate underpinning global asset valuations. Traditionally it reflects growth and inflation expectations, but Sanders warned its drivers now also include the Fed’s policy path, energy prices, fiscal deficits and foreign investor demand. He added that when the Fed adjusts short-term policy rates to fight inflation or stimulate growth, the market-determined 10-year yield often indicates how effective that policy has been.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said if Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire this winter, we will respond.

烏克蘭總統澤連斯基：如果俄羅斯在這個冬天不同意能源停火，我們將作出迴應。

China’s Ministry of Education will roll out a vocational-education work plan aimed at expanding and upgrading service-sector capacity by prioritizing high-skilled talent. The plan will target eight priority fields chosen for large capacity, strong growth support, clear GDP pull and acute skills shortages, and sets a task ledger covering teaching-factor reform, vocational skills training and vocational education standards with responsibility-based, checklist implementation. For technical support services it will focus on high-end equipment clusters in Jing-Jin-Ji, Chang-Zhu-Tan and Chengdu–Chongqing, prioritizing high-skilled training in aerospace equipment and intelligent non-destructive testing for rail transit. For software and data services it will target the Greater Bay Area, key central and western cities and national data-labeling pilot cities, emphasizing large-scale domestic software adoption, AI-related needs and training in HarmonyOS application and human-in-the-loop data labeling.

國外 1. 高盛：上調12月布油價格預期至每桶90美元，維持2027年均價80美元的預期。 2. 摩根大通：AI股票或推動亞洲2027年七成盈利增長，供應緊張或持續至2028年。 3. 傑富瑞：5年期美債收益率升至5%，對長期投資者具有較強吸引力。 4. 星展銀行：市場正在重新評估AI投資風險，融資紀律可能進一步加強。 5. 裕信銀行：歐洲戰略自主將推高政府債務與稅負，利率中樞或結構性上移。 6. 凱投宏觀：加拿大10月加息可能性大幅下降，預計明年纔開始推動利率正常化。 7. 畢馬威：加拿大就業連續兩月下滑，加息前景更趨複雜，但仍預計12月加息25基點。 8. 蒙特利爾銀行：加拿大就業連續兩月大幅下滑，加息必要性明顯降低。 9. 德意志銀行：新加坡核心通脹未來一年或維持高位，新加坡金管局料進一步推動新元升值。 國內 1. 中金：“科技+紅利”的啞鈴型配置結構重視程度有望提升。 2. 招商策略：未來3—6個月聚焦科技、內需、券商三大主線。 3. 中信證券：2026年第四季度油輪龍頭估值和利潤有望創歷史新高。 4. 中信證券：用景氣和供給出清來應對高利率，密切跟蹤AI投資週期拐點。 5. 中信證券：美股盈利的高增長或已不僅集中於頭部科技公司，非科技板塊的盈利貢獻正在明顯增強。 6. 中信證券：Scale-up光進銅退成爲大勢所趨，NPO/CPO驅動無源器件價值重估。 7. 中信建投：TLVR芯片電感單位價值量提升，行業空間快速擴容。 8. 華泰證券：消費級3D打印設備放量有望帶動耗材需求持續增長。 9. 華泰證券A股策略：繼續沿盈利與景氣尋找性價比方向。