香港恒生指数10月12日（周一）收盘上涨59.85点，涨幅0.25%，报24271.2点； 香港恒生科技指数10月12日（周一）收盘下跌28.27点，跌幅0.67%，报4169.57点； 国企指数10月12日（周一）收盘上涨20.7点，涨幅0.25%，报8168.57点； 红筹指数10月12日（周一）收盘下跌4.21点，跌幅0.1%，报4044.74点。

Madison Investment head of fixed income Mike Sanders said investors closely watch the 10-year US Treasury yield as the benchmark risk-free rate underpinning global asset valuations. Traditionally it reflects growth and inflation expectations, but Sanders warned its drivers now also include the Fed’s policy path, energy prices, fiscal deficits and foreign investor demand. He added that when the Fed adjusts short-term policy rates to fight inflation or stimulate growth, the market-determined 10-year yield often indicates how effective that policy has been.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said if Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire this winter, we will respond.

乌克兰总统泽连斯基：如果俄罗斯在这个冬天不同意能源停火，我们将作出回应。

China’s Ministry of Education will roll out a vocational-education work plan aimed at expanding and upgrading service-sector capacity by prioritizing high-skilled talent. The plan will target eight priority fields chosen for large capacity, strong growth support, clear GDP pull and acute skills shortages, and sets a task ledger covering teaching-factor reform, vocational skills training and vocational education standards with responsibility-based, checklist implementation. For technical support services it will focus on high-end equipment clusters in Jing-Jin-Ji, Chang-Zhu-Tan and Chengdu–Chongqing, prioritizing high-skilled training in aerospace equipment and intelligent non-destructive testing for rail transit. For software and data services it will target the Greater Bay Area, key central and western cities and national data-labeling pilot cities, emphasizing large-scale domestic software adoption, AI-related needs and training in HarmonyOS application and human-in-the-loop data labeling.

国外 1. 高盛：上调12月布油价格预期至每桶90美元，维持2027年均价80美元的预期。 2. 摩根大通：AI股票或推动亚洲2027年七成盈利增长，供应紧张或持续至2028年。 3. 杰富瑞：5年期美债收益率升至5%，对长期投资者具有较强吸引力。 4. 星展银行：市场正在重新评估AI投资风险，融资纪律可能进一步加强。 5. 裕信银行：欧洲战略自主将推高政府债务与税负，利率中枢或结构性上移。 6. 凯投宏观：加拿大10月加息可能性大幅下降，预计明年才开始推动利率正常化。 7. 毕马威：加拿大就业连续两月下滑，加息前景更趋复杂，但仍预计12月加息25基点。 8. 蒙特利尔银行：加拿大就业连续两月大幅下滑，加息必要性明显降低。 9. 德意志银行：新加坡核心通胀未来一年或维持高位，新加坡金管局料进一步推动新元升值。 国内 1. 中金：“科技+红利”的哑铃型配置结构重视程度有望提升。 2. 招商策略：未来3—6个月聚焦科技、内需、券商三大主线。 3. 中信证券：2026年第四季度油轮龙头估值和利润有望创历史新高。 4. 中信证券：用景气和供给出清来应对高利率，密切跟踪AI投资周期拐点。 5. 中信证券：美股盈利的高增长或已不仅集中于头部科技公司，非科技板块的盈利贡献正在明显增强。 6. 中信证券：Scale-up光进铜退成为大势所趋，NPO/CPO驱动无源器件价值重估。 7. 中信建投：TLVR芯片电感单位价值量提升，行业空间快速扩容。 8. 华泰证券：消费级3D打印设备放量有望带动耗材需求持续增长。 9. 华泰证券A股策略：继续沿盈利与景气寻找性价比方向。