US Dollar:
1. Markets have revised their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, now believing there's over a 50% probability of a rate hike this year.
2. UBS: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in September and December, up from previous forecasts of June and September.
3. According to a Reuters poll, 65 out of 82 economists (approximately 79%) believe the Fed will cut rates one or two times this year.
4. OECD: Expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Forecasts US growth of 2% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
5. US President Trump: (Regarding US stocks) I thought they would fall much more. Oil price volatility and stock market declines haven't been as "serious" as they seem.
6. US Treasury Secretary Bessant: The dollar has re-established its safe-haven status. The dollar is appreciating, and capital is flowing in.
7. Federal Reserve Governor Cook: The risk balance has tilted more towards inflation.
8. Federal Reserve Governor Milan: There is a path to reduce the Fed's asset holdings by $1 trillion to $2 trillion.
9. New York Fed System Open Market Account Manager Perli: The pace of monthly Treasury purchases may slow significantly after mid-April.
10. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: Some concern about the vulnerability of private credit.
11. Learning from the British model to constrain the Fed? Bessant slams British media: Taboo fake news.
Euro:
1. ECB Governing Council member Nagel: If inflation worsens, a rate hike can be chosen at the next meeting.
2. OECD: Expects the ECB's key interest rate to rise slightly in the second quarter.
3. The French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) manufacturing confidence index fell 3 points to 99 in March, falling below the long-term average of 100 for the first time since November last year. The consumer confidence index fell 2 points to 89, the lowest level in four months.
4. ECB President Lagarde: Energy disruptions could last for years, and the economic consequences will only gradually emerge.
British Pound Sterling:
1. OECD: Expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 and cut rates in early 2027.
2. Bank of England Deputy Governor Briden: Benchmark interest rates are tightening, and labor slack is increasing. Our current situation is very different from the last energy shock in 2022.
3. According to a Reuters poll: 33 out of 50 economists (66%) believe the Bank of England will keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75% until the end of the third quarter (compared to 20% in the March 12th survey).
4. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor: If the shock is mild or short-lived, further rate cuts can be made once the risks subside.
5. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor: Keeping interest rates unchanged is preferable until the impact of the war becomes clearer; the threshold for raising rates is currently very high.
6. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor: The UK government bond market's reaction has been somewhat excessive.
South Korean Won:
1. South Korean Deputy Finance Minister: Calls on export companies to cooperate in maintaining the stability of the foreign exchange market. Other:
1. Fitch: Rising oil prices will severely impact economic growth in South Korea, Japan, and the United States. Under an adverse scenario, the US economy is projected to grow by 1.5% this year, and the Eurozone by less than 1%.
2. OECD: Maintains its 2026 global economic growth forecast at 2.9%, but expects it to slow to 2.6% in an adverse scenario. It lowered its 2027 global economic growth forecast from 3.1% to 3%. It had originally planned to raise its global economic growth forecast before the attack on Iran.
3. The Mexican central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Three members voted to lower the rate to 6.75%, while two voted to keep it at 7.00%.
4. Swiss National Bank: ECB Governing Council member Simkus has been reappointed as the Swiss National Bank President.
