Westpac: RBNZ to hold OCR at 2.25% today; market expects no change. Iran war
fuel spike pushes NZ CPI/inf >4%, expected elevated through most of 2026; Q2 CPI
first test for spillover. 2026 GDP cut to 1.8%-2.0% (vs 2.8% in Feb);
unemployment to ~5.5% y.e. OCR terminal ~3.2%; Dec-2026 OCR ~2.8% → implies 2-3
hikes this year. MPC split on timing not direction; Westpac cites limited
second-round inf evidence, high war-duration uncertainty, and risk of premature
tightening if slowdown deepens.
