Sources say the United States, Mexico and Canada are set to miss the July 1,
2026 deadline to formally renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
(USMCA), likely triggering months-to-years of negotiations over auto
rules-of-origin, tariffs and other sector rules. The pact, signed under Trump,
requires a joint review in July 2026; after the review the parties can renew for
16 years, withdraw, or neither (which would activate an annual rolling-review
mechanism). If no agreement to renew is reached, the agreement remains in force
under current terms until at least 2036 unless a party withdraws and will enter
yearly rolling review. Officials close to the process say the
neither-renew-nor-withdraw outcome is the most likely scenario and that a US
refusal to formally renew would push the three parties into protracted
negotiations and leave the pact’s future indefinitely uncertain.
