Markets expect US May headline CPI 4.2% YoY (Apr 2.4%), 0.5% MoM — the first
print above 4% since May 2023 and the highest since Apr 2023. The headline rise
is driven primarily by energy after the Iran-related Middle East conflict; core
CPI ex-food and energy is seen at 2.9% YoY, 0.3% MoM. Charles Schwab Wealth
Management chief strategist Sanders says inflation is not just an oil problem
but also reflects monetary supply and factors increasingly linked to AI, raising
the risk of persistent inflation; she warns a stronger-than-expected print would
pressure equities. The Trump administration expects inflation to fall once
Middle East fighting eases, but Sanders cautions supply damage may prevent oil
from reverting quickly to prior lows even if the conflict ends.
