ECB chief economist Lane said employment is stable and real incomes continue to rise.

Market views split after a Fed official’s ‘silence is golden’ line leaves the policy path unclear. Goldman: if inflation remains elevated by September, the Fed could hike as early as September/this autumn and may follow with one–two additional hikes. Former Fed economist Sam: no clear trigger now to respond to supply-driven inflation, but the case for action is building. Huatai Securities: no rate move before September; ~50% chance of a December hike; cumulative two hikes possible by end of next year. Danske Bank: sees two hikes possible over the next 12 months, with a September move if data stays stronger than expected. BNP Paribas: warns the market shock could come if an individual Fed official proves more hawkish than Powell; projects three consecutive hikes beginning in December. On the dovish side, Nordea: still sees scope for two cuts but pushed into 2027 with a first cut at the March 2027 meeting. Citi: now forecasts 25bp cuts in Oct and Dec 2026 and Jan 2027 (revising earlier calls for cuts this year). UBS: even if a US‑Iran deal eases oil, the Fed will wait for confirmation that inflation is past the threat—cuts only from March 2027 in UBS’s view. Barclays expects rates to remain unchanged through 2027. JP Morgan: Fed unlikely to move rates this year as the committee appears patient. Nomura: the dot plot has not fully priced oil weakness after US‑Iran talks; future policy will hinge on non‑energy price trends. CITIC Securities: leans toward the cited official not supporting a year‑end hike and expects the FOMC split to converge toward the chair; anticipates unchanged policy this year. China International Capital Co: expects no rate moves this year but rising upside risk next year if US growth accelerates on AI capex. ING: does not see a current need to hike but cannot rule out future hikes and says any hike would likely be reversed quickly.

US officials said the US and Iranian presidents signed an electronic memorandum of understanding Wednesday night; both sides said a formal memorandum will be signed later. Al Jazeera reported Trump signed the electronic MoU while visiting France and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed in Iran.