According to the New York Times, Iran has historically experienced fierce political competition, sometimes erupting into the public eye. Traditionally, however, these divisions have existed between conservatives and reformers, the former adhering to the religious and anti-Western ideologies of the Islamic Revolution, and the latter seeking change but repeatedly failing. Now, in the vacuum left by the assassination of former Supreme Leader Khamenei, who held absolute power over all major decisions, the conservatives have split.
One side identifies as pragmatists, believing the nation's survival requires ending hostility with the United States and opening its economy. The other side comprises a minority of hardliners who refuse to make any concessions to the United States (including on the nuclear program) and believe Iran can win by prolonging the war.
According to four senior Iranian officials and two members of the Revolutionary Guard, the public divisions are just the tip of the iceberg, with deeper rifts forming behind the scenes. They describe a fierce power struggle: each side is trying to win over the new Supreme Leader Mojtabalah as an ally and dominate Iran's political future. According to them, the pragmatists (including senior Revolutionary Guard generals, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, President Pezehiziyan, and Supreme National Security Council Secretary General Zorgader) have gained the upper hand.
They have ignored external noise and pushed forward key decisions regarding accepting a ceasefire, direct negotiations with US Vice President Vance, and signing an agreement with Trump.
Moreover, the Supreme Leader no longer appears to possess "absolute power." In the months since the outbreak of the war, Revolutionary Guard generals have consolidated power and are effectively governing the country.
One indication that decision-making has shifted from the absolute power of the former Supreme Leader to a more collective process under the current Supreme Leader is that Iranian Vice President for Administrative Affairs Mohammad-Jafar Gembanah recently stated that the new Supreme Leader does not have final say.
Gembanah stated that Mojtaba's opinions, similar to those of other officials, should be discussed and considered. "If we only need to implement the Supreme Leader's opinions, then why do we have a parliament and a National Security Council?" he said in a speech to senior government leaders. Such a statement would have been inconceivable under the previous Supreme Leader.
