SpaceX's stock price experienced a significant correction after its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index. The day after its inclusion on July 7th, the stock price fell approximately 35% from its previous high, dropping below $147, almost erasing all gains since its IPO. In short, this appears to be a classic case of "sell the news." Ultimately, Wall Street seems to believe that the stock is not worth the high premium it enjoyed before its inclusion in the index, especially the all-time high reached shortly after its IPO. Currently, SpaceX has a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 trillion and revenue of approximately $18.7 billion in 2025, valuing the company at approximately 100 times its revenue. The company's high valuation primarily stems from its Starlink satellite internet business, which is projected to contribute over $11 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for about 60% of the company's total revenue. However, SpaceX still faces profitability pressures. The company is projected to lose $4.9 billion in 2025 and $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, while also needing to invest heavily in the Starship rocket project and its AI business, xAI. The current stock price already reflects the market's high expectations for continued Starlink growth, rocket project progress, and returns on AI investments. Any mishap in any of these projects could put the stock at risk. While the share price pullback has made SpaceX cheaper than it was a week ago, this does not equate to "cheap." Given that the company is still operating at billions of dollars in losses, its nearly $2 trillion market capitalization offers virtually no margin of safety. Even after a significant one-day drop, the best strategy is to wait and see, and for SpaceX to prove that Starlink's profits can exceed its expenses.
