Dongfang Jincheng said upcoming June financial, trade and macro releases should
show Q2 GDP around 4.4% and a K-shaped divergence: external demand and
new-economy sectors outperform while domestic demand and traditional sectors
remain weak. Liquidity stays broadly stable and loose, institutional
under-allocation pressure persists, and rigid allocation demand is
resilient—supporting bonds despite weak fundamentals. Market focus will shift
toward a late-month Politburo meeting; changes in fiscal or monetary policy
expectations could trigger episodic bond volatility. Ahead of clearer policy
direction, a sustained trend is unlikely, and the bond market is expected to
trade slightly firm and choppy this week.
