Driven by the AI infrastructure investment boom, TSMC is highly likely to record its fifth consecutive quarter of record profits. Analysts point out that market demand for TSMC's 3nm and 2nm AI chip manufacturing processes, as well as its advanced CoWoS packaging technology, remains strong.
According to a consensus forecast of 18 analysts by LSEG SmartEstimate, TSMC's second-quarter net profit, to be announced on Thursday, is expected to surge 59% to NT$632.6 billion (approximately US$19.65 billion).
If net profit exceeds NT$572.5 billion, it will set a new record for the company's highest single-quarter net profit and mark its tenth consecutive quarter of profit growth.
Dan Nistred, a research analyst at Asian private investment firm TriOrient, stated that TSMC's strong second-quarter revenue indicates that AI demand remains healthy, driving demand for advanced chip manufacturing and CoWoS packaging. Furthermore, analysts generally expect TSMC to raise its full-year revenue growth forecast. Bank of America Asia semiconductor analyst Haas Liu points out that supply chain research indicates the AI demand pipeline remains strong, and TSMC may raise its full-year growth forecast from the current guidance of "over 30% year-on-year."
Another key focus for investors is whether TSMC will raise its capital expenditure outlook, which is seen as an important indicator of the company's management's confidence in the sustainability of AI demand.
During its April earnings call, TSMC stated that its 2026 capital expenditure would be at the high end of its previous guidance range of $52 billion to $56 billion. While some analysts, including Nisterd, expect TSMC to maintain this guidance, Haas Liu predicts that TSMC may raise its capital expenditure outlook to approximately $58 billion, citing factors including tight equipment supply and the aggressive capacity expansion of memory chip manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, Micron, and SK Hynix.
