The answer is refiners, who are reaping historic profits.
The WTI 3-2-1 crack spread has surged to $59 per barrel, a record high. This metric is a key indicator of how much profit refiners make per barrel of crude oil after processing it into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Since the beginning of 2026, refining margins have almost tripled. In comparison, between 1985 and 2021, this metric averaged only about $10 per barrel; even during the refining boom of 2004-2008, it never exceeded $30 per barrel. This surge in margins reflects a severe shortage of global refining capacity. The Iran war, attacks on Russian refineries, and reduced fuel exports from some countries have collectively led to a continued tightening of refined product supplies. Currently, approximately 10% of global refining capacity (about 8 million barrels per day) is shut down. This is why, despite international oil prices falling by about $40 per barrel from their March highs, fuel prices such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel remain high. With global oil supply tightening, refineries around the world are entering a period of substantial profits.
