Gulf states are investing heavily in "de-Hormuz-ization" of oil transportation, weakening Iran's influence over the global energy chokepoint by building new pipelines and ports. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2028, the Gulf region's oil transportation capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz will reach 7.3 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 60% of its export capacity. Currently, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are accelerating the construction of critical infrastructure, hoping to transport more crude oil overland to ports in the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Arabian Sea. Although approximately 7 to 9 million barrels per day of oil will still need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by then, and the Red Sea route will still face the risk of attacks by the Houthis, the global energy supply chain has begun to proactively reduce its dependence on this strategic passage. This means that the most profound impact of this round of Middle East conflict may not be oil price fluctuations, but a permanent restructuring of the global oil transportation landscape—the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's geopolitical leverage for decades, may no longer be a "sword" hanging over the global energy market by 2028.
