On Monday, Trump's refusal to rule out the possibility of seizing islands during an interview with Fox News reignited speculation.
The real question isn't "whether it's possible," but "what the cost would be."
Andreas Krieger, Associate Professor of Security Studies at King's College London, argues that "temporarily seizing an island is entirely different from long-term control, resupply, and strategic gains." He believes this is especially true for Qeshm Island, given its larger size and proximity to mainland Iran, rather than being an isolated maritime outpost. Smaller islands like Hengam are relatively easier to capture, but still within effective range of Iranian artillery, missiles, drones, and speedboats.
If the US attempts to seize multiple islands simultaneously, it will no longer be a limited-scale raid, but a large-scale amphibious landing operation. Furthermore, even if the US successfully controls these islands, it won't prevent Iran from continuing to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, US troops will be exposed to sustained Iranian attacks for an extended period, making it easier for Tehran to cultivate a political narrative of "US occupation of Iranian territory."
Krieg estimates that a limited-scale island-seizure operation would initially require at least 5,000 to 10,000 troops, including not only combat units but also air defense forces, engineers, logistics support, medical personnel, and command personnel. If multiple islands are attacked simultaneously, or if the objective is not merely capture but long-term control, the required troop strength would increase rapidly. He further points out, "Iran doesn't need to immediately retake these islands; simply sustaining the US military presence will turn these outposts into costly and politically awkward military bases." Nader Hashimi, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at Georgetown University, expressed strong doubt that the US would actually attempt to seize any of Iran's southern islands, especially Kharg Island. He believes such an operation would not only result in heavy US casualties but could also provoke strong opposition within the US, particularly from Trump's "MAGA" supporters, with political costs potentially reminiscent of the Iraq War.
