The biggest problem isn't caused by what you don't know, but by "what you're absolutely certain of, but the truth is quite the opposite." This is a huge problem facing the stock market right now; the market is genuinely questioning everything it knows. This is evident in major indices: the S&P 500 fell 1.6% this week, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 2.7%, on track for its worst July performance in over two decades. Everything people were once certain of is crumbling. Driven by supply shortages and insatiable demand for artificial intelligence, chip stocks should have been unstoppable. Now, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen 20% from its June 22 peak and entered bear market territory on Friday. This pain is also evident in Asian markets, with South Korea's KOSPI index falling over 25% and Japan's Nikkei 225 index plunging 4% on Friday, entering technical correction territory.
However, perhaps more worrying in this sell-off is the lack of a clear catalyst.
Admittedly, we can point to a number of issues, including concerns about the chip sector's excessive gains in the first half of the year, the massive borrowing by large tech companies for huge capital expenditure plans, and the continued uncertainty surrounding the economic backdrop under the Fed's new policies. This helps explain the rotation currently occurring in the broader market. However, the stock market's capacity to withstand weakness in its largest and hottest stocks, such as chip stocks, is limited and will eventually become unsustainable. Jonathan Klinsky, chief market technical analyst at BTIG, fears a sharp correction similar to the summer of 2024, which could push the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average (6983 points). Klinsky warns that if this materializes, the semiconductor sector will continue to weaken and fall further, while some of the recent "broad-based trading" and the "Big Seven" will stall and turn downwards. The market seems to be quietly moving in this direction, even though the headlines driving the decline don't look particularly alarming.
