The chart shows that the off-balance-sheet debt of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle has increased approximately sevenfold in four years, surging from about $200 billion in 2022 to about $1.65 trillion in 2026, even exceeding the combined on-balance-sheet debt of the five companies at approximately $1.35 trillion. This growth is primarily driven by AI infrastructure commitments such as data center leasing, chip and equipment procurement, and long-term computing power contracts.
This means that the real investment in the AI race is far greater than what traditional capital expenditures and debt indicators suggest. At the same time, tech giants are increasing their public debt issuance, further adding to their visible leverage.
If future AI revenue and data center utilization rates fail to materialize, these current off-balance-sheet commitments will gradually translate into cash flow, financing, and impairment pressures; if demand materializes, these commitments will transform into computing power barriers.
