Analyst Soumaya Keynes stated that while most countries in the world may have long been weary of the US tariff war, the Trump administration remains highly motivated, having announced tariffs of 10%-12.5% on 60 economies. Have these actions truly been effective? Judging from some readily apparent indicators, the results are not significant.
Firstly, there is the attitude of the American public; approximately 60% of Americans lack confidence in Trump's trade policy decisions. Although some considerable investment has been announced following the imposition of tariffs, the US manufacturing sector has not shown signs of prosperity. The goods trade deficit has narrowed recently, but this is merely due to importers rushing to ship goods before the tariffs took effect last year, causing a significant expansion of the deficit.
Other indicators show mixed results. Critics argue that because this administration has not attempted to negotiate tariffs back to zero, Trump is effectively harming other countries by "slapping Americans in the face." For example, a study published in February of this year suggests that, in fact, exporters to the US have already suffered considerable losses. The tariffs imposed during Trump's first term, logically speaking, should have reduced trade volume and increased costs, which, all else being equal, should have driven up prices. However, prices did not rise, meaning exporters bore approximately 60% of the tariff burden. This doesn't necessarily mean the US won; it simply means foreigners lost. Another study on last year's tariffs confirmed that when US importers continued to purchase the same goods from the same suppliers, prices did not change after the tariffs took effect. But when US importers switched suppliers, for every 8 percentage point increase in tariffs, the import price before the tariffs took effect decreased by approximately 5%. This also doesn't count as a victory for the US. About half of the price decrease was due to buyers switching to lower-quality goods.
The last indicator that might displease pressured US importers is Trump's "deterrence." In this regard, Trump's performance has been increasingly poor. Even before the Supreme Court ruled his "Liberation Day" tariffs illegal, he frequently made statements on social media that he never fulfilled. The Supreme Court's ruling, which challenges the president's legal authority, means he is increasingly resembling an old man waving his fist at a dark cloud—impressive but unable to cause any real harm.
