Danske Bank senior analyst Joel Rossier said in a note that with Fed chair KEVIN
WARSH not expected to release new economic projections or forward guidance at
Wednesday’s meeting, market attention will shift to voting splits within the
policy committee. "We think the most likely outcome is 2–4 members supporting a
rate hike, but that would not be enough to carry a hike," he said. Danske
expects 25bp hikes in December and March next year, though risks are skewed
toward an earlier move. Money markets currently price roughly 8bp of
tightening—implying about a 31.5% probability of a 25bp hike—but still expect
the Fed to keep rates unchanged at this week’s meeting.
