Investinglive analyst Justin Low stated that hopes for a ceasefire agreement are boosting market optimism at the start of the new week. On Monday, we saw oil prices open sharply lower, while stocks, precious metals, and bond yields rose in tandem, and the dollar fell. However, a similar situation occurred in mid-to-late June when the US and Iran reached their first ceasefire agreement, the so-called Memorandum of Understanding. That agreement ultimately failed, and a month later we are back to square one.
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Ship tracking data shows that only about one to three vessels have passed through the strait in the past few days, essentially meaning shipping has come to a complete standstill. The only reportedly passing tankers were product tankers linked to or operating within Iran. Meanwhile, LNG carriers have been completely unable to pass since July 16th. Not to mention the situation on the Red Sea side, where only 11 commodity vessels were recorded passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 26th, compared to the usual daily throughput of 60 to 80 vessels. The longer this situation persists, the further it means that the actual state of the global energy market is diverging from what market reactions suggest.
Besides the aforementioned issues and Iran's unwavering commitment to control the Strait of Hormuz, the positions of the United States and Iran on the nuclear issue remain vastly different. Before the first ceasefire agreement collapsed, the two sides couldn't even find a starting point for nuclear negotiations. Negotiations were repeatedly postponed, then further suspended during Khamenei's funeral, after which the ceasefire broke down. To this day, the key red lines and negotiating positions of both sides remain unchanged. As mentioned earlier, Iran's current strategy appears to be stalling. They hope to extract as many concessions as possible while the United States and its allies maintain the status quo. We might see negotiations restart at some point, and Iran might even declare that it will "reopen" the Strait of Hormuz. However, all of this is likely just for show.
