Pulaisi said the number of dissents at this week’s Fed meeting will be watched
as a gauge of FOMC internal disagreement. Blerina Uruci, Pulaisi’s US chief
economist, expects a 10–2 vote with Logan and Hamack dissenting in favor of a
25bp hike. She said if dissents exceed three, even if the Fed holds in July,
that would be a clearer signal the committee is moving toward a September rate
increase. Her baseline forecast is for the FOMC to keep rates unchanged over the
next 12 months. Uruci added she believes Wash is less inclined toward a
September hike than current market pricing implies.
