JP Morgan sees a 50% probability the Fed holds rates with a hawkish tilt — its
baseline — which would leave the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. A 28% chance
of a hold with a dovish tilt is judged the most bullish scenario, potentially
lifting the S&P 500 up to about 1%. A 20% probability of a 25bp rate hike could
drive the S&P 500 down roughly 1.5–2%, with the Nasdaq likely to underperform.
