BERENBERG analyst Andrew Wishart says Europe's Q2 activity showed resilience
despite the energy shock, reducing the likelihood that policymakers must pursue
preventive rate hikes to avert a wage-price spiral that would threaten jobs. He
warns the Bank of England could still deliver a 25bp hike if energy prices rise
further, but the lack of a rebound in labor demand means disinflation is likely
to persist. Wishart expects the Bank of England to begin cutting in December,
Projecting the policy rate to fall from 3.75% to 3.0% by mid-2027.