BERENBERG analyst Andrew Wishart says Europe's Q2 activity showed resilience despite the energy shock, reducing the likelihood that policymakers must pursue preventive rate hikes to avert a wage-price spiral that would threaten jobs. He warns the Bank of England could still deliver a 25bp hike if energy prices rise further, but the lack of a rebound in labour demand means disinflation is likely to persist. Wishart expects the Bank of England to begin cutting in December, projecting the policy ra

Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said the Fed's decision to hold rates was in line with expectations but the key issue is how much upward pressure there will be at the September meeting. He noted US inf remains elevated and global oil prices have jumped, and markets largely expect the next hike could come in September. At the same time Detrick cautioned against ignoring recent positive inf signals: housing, apparel and auto price increases slowed last month, suggesting some easing of inflationary pressure. The mix of still-high inf and rising oil versus recent price improvement places the Fed in a difficult policy trade-off.

Southbound flows recorded a net sell of 8.571 bln yuan today. Via Shanghai Stock Connect, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong and Pop Mart were net sold HKD 1.972 bln and HKD 385 mln respectively; Tencent Holdings was the top net buy at HKD 444 mln. Via Shenzhen Stock Connect, SMIC and Alibaba-W were net sold HKD 1.376 bln and HKD 993 mln respectively; Tencent was the top net buy at HKD 568 mln.