SpaceX will release its first quarterly report since its IPO on August 4th. The market expects second-quarter revenue of approximately $6.93 billion, with Starlink contributing $3.82 billion, AI business approximately $2.33 billion, and launch business approximately $870 million. However, the company may still record a loss before interest and taxes (EBIT) of approximately $1.55 billion, while capital expenditures are close to $14 billion.
The real issue isn't whether the business is growing, but who will foot the bill for that growth. Starlink is currently the main source of profit and cash flow, while AI and Starship are still in the heavy investment phase. AI computing power leasing contracts offer potential revenue growth, but the market is beginning to demand that management explain: when will the contracts be fully ramped up, whether data center utilization can be maintained, and when will capital expenditures peak.
Institutional disagreements are also focused here. Morgan Stanley maintains its target price of $300, with a valuation of $152 for the company's AI business; Morningstar, however, only gives a fair value of $63,
believing that the current price includes excessively high expectations for technological success and AI returns.
Two days after the earnings report, approximately 912 million restricted shares will become eligible for sale. Therefore, even if revenue exceeds expectations, the stock price may still be affected by the lifting of the lock-up period if management cannot explain how the AI investment will translate into cash flow. The market is reassessing whether SpaceX truly possesses three growth curves or is using a single mature business to support two cash-burning projects simultaneously.
