U.S. monthly net customs revenue rose to approximately $30 billion after tariff increases in 2025, but fell to a negative $25 billion in June 2026. This was because refunds following the Supreme Court's overturning of some IEEPA tariffs exceeded the amount of new tariffs imposed that month.
However, refunds do not proportionally lower prices. The costs of previous tariffs have already been factored into commodity prices, so companies receiving refunds may not proactively lower prices. They are more likely to use the money to boost profits, pay off debt, repurchase shares, or invest. Bank of America also believes that,
companies may reduce future price increases, but the possibility of significant price reductions in the short term is limited, and core PCE may still reach 3.1% by the end of the year.
Therefore, this money is more like fiscal easing for corporate profits and cash flow: Hartnett estimates that the approximately $35 billion in profit improvement in the past three months is offsetting the $75 billion in profit losses caused by last year's tariffs.
Only when tariff rates continue to decline and companies convert refunds into price reductions will there be a significant deflationary effect; if refunds are mainly used for investment and shareholder returns, the result will be that growth and asset prices are supported, while fiscal deficits and long-term debt supply pressures increase.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates that only about $56 billion of the $166 billion in refunds will go to companies with tighter financing constraints that may be able to quickly adjust their investments, hiring, or pricing.
