On August 9, a merchant ship was reportedly hit by a projectile near Qomzal, Oman. JMIC reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to monitor and harass merchant ships, with attacks and near misses persisting on the southern Omani shipping route. Following the breakdown of the US-Iranian understanding in early July, the daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz dropped from approximately 45 vessels to 13, with more and more ships turning to routes directly influenced by Iran.
Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, believes the real change is not a single attack on a ship, but rather Iran's use of security risks to reshape shipping choices: making the US-backed southern Omani route appear unsafe while guiding ships towards its own control, thereby gaining post-war dominance over shipping routes, permits, and even "service fees." This means the market needs to price not just short-term risks of closures, but whether Iran can transform wartime military deterrence into long-term institutional leverage.
However, changing shipping routes does not equate to Iran gaining permanent control. Existing IMO shipping routes are primarily located in Omani waters, and the principles of international straits for transit do not support Iran unilaterally setting permits or imposing fees. Whether its influence can be solidified depends on whether the Oman shipping route can be restored to safety, whether escort and mine clearance can be carried out, and whether the Gulf countries accept the new governance framework.
