Internationally
1. Wall Street forecaster: Signs of a US housing market collapse, reminiscent of the 2008 crisis.
2. Goldman Sachs: The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, and inflation will moderate.
3. JPMorgan Chase: Inflation will slowly decline; the Fed does not need to raise rates.
4. Commerzbank: The Hormuz agreement stalls; Middle East geopolitical risks continue to pressure the energy market.
5. Goldman Sachs: With trillions of dollars in reserves, Japan can replicate multiple rounds of "epic foreign exchange intervention."
6. Morgan Asset Management: US "Teflon-style inflation" is unsustainable; the Fed does not need to raise rates.
7. 53 Bank: July CPI barely reached the threshold for the Fed to hold rates steady in September.
8. CIBC: The July inflation report reinforces expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in September.
9. Capital Economics: South Korea's semiconductor boom may cool down within two years. Domestic:
1. CICC: US inflation may have entered a new phase, and the duration of inflation may be correspondingly prolonged.
2. Huatai Securities: Focus on opportunities for domestic substitution of aluminum nitride.
3. CITIC Securities: The Middle East may remain in a stalemate under Trump, characterized by "TACO-style concessions" and "angry escalations."
4. CITIC Securities: AI remains the main theme of medium-term prosperity, but high-end computing hardware is entering a differentiation phase, with funds gradually shifting towards AI applications.
5. CITIC Securities: The Fed's interest rate hike expectations priced in the derivatives market still have room for further downward revision.
6. Galaxy Securities: Continued optimism for the continued high prosperity of railway equipment.
