The marginal demand logic for industrial metals is changing. In the past, market assessments of copper and aluminum demand were often closely tied to real estate and traditional infrastructure, but currently, data centers, grid expansion, and electrification are becoming more significant sources of new demand. UniCredit believes that copper benefits from structural supply constraints and electrification, while aluminum benefits more from grid expansion, lightweighting, and recycling demand.
This shift is also supported by electricity investment trends. The IEA projects that global electricity demand will grow at an average annual rate of 3.6% from 2026 to 2030, with AI and data centers being important sources of incremental growth; to meet this increased load, global grid investment will need to increase by approximately 50% by 2030 compared to current levels.