Semiconductor prices have rebounded from their late July lows, but Goldman Sachs observed that leveraged funds have not simultaneously increased their positions. The total assets of US leveraged semiconductor ETFs have fallen from a high of approximately $157 billion to approximately $99 billion. At the beginning of the July decline, funds clearly engaged in contrarian bottom-fishing, with Goldman Sachs estimating approximately $15 billion in additional long positions beyond what price changes could explain; however, the situation reversed in August.
Goldman Sachs points out that the recovery in leveraged ETF assets this month is primarily driven by market capitalization growth due to rising underlying prices, while redemptions and sales are still occurring. In other words, prices are correcting, but high-beta funds have not chased the rally again.
Meanwhile, although the implied volatility of AI assets has declined rapidly, it remains at an extremely high level relative to non-AI markets since 2023, making the cost of rebuilding a large-scale AI long position still high. This is also one of the key reasons why the current semiconductor rebound is weaker than previous ones.
