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Persistent extreme heat and scarce rainfall are increasingly weighing on UK activity: about two-thirds of England is now in formal drought. Prime Minister Andy Burnham convened an emergency meeting this week on drought and wildfires. Heat is keeping

2026-08-14

Persistent extreme heat and scarce rainfall are increasingly weighing on UK activity: about two-thirds of England is now in formal drought. Prime Minister Andy Burnham convened an emergency meeting this week on drought and wildfires. Heat is keeping consumers off high streets, hitting agriculture, delaying construction and reducing labor productivity. A Friday institutional analysis estimates cumulative losses at roughly £6bln, about 0.2% of output. Economists say the hot summer is a negative supply shock; while GDP-level effects may be temporary, there is a risk it could push up prices in some sectors, complicating the Bank of England's fight against elevated inflation.

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2026-08-14

Goldman derivatives trader Shawn Tuteja says US equity sentiment reversed in two weeks from fearing the Fed, higher long‑end yields, geopolitics and supply to a 'either outcome is bullish' view on the September FOMC. Market reads a dovish‑leaning hik

Goldman derivatives trader Shawn Tuteja says US equity sentiment reversed in two weeks from fearing the Fed, higher long‑end yields, geopolitics and supply to a 'either outcome is bullish' view on the September FOMC. Market reads a dovish‑leaning hike as stabilizing the long end, and no hike as confirmation that strong earnings will broaden gains beyond AI. Client net exposures are at the 67th percentile over the past five years and total exposures at the 89th; SPX single‑day call volume hit a record ~4.0m contracts. Tuteja does not predict a large index decline but warns that when both policy outcomes are pre‑priced as positive, market cushioning against a hawkish surprise or renewed long‑yield upside is reduced, raising complacency risk.
2026-08-13

Fed's Barkin said the U.S. labor market remains broadly balanced but vulnerabilities persist.

Fed's Barkin said the U.S. labor market remains broadly balanced but vulnerabilities persist.
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