Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in July, above the 4.4% consensus,
the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. Employment fell 15.8k versus an
expected +12.0k, with all losses in part-time roles. AUD slid about 0.3% and the
3-year government bond yield fell roughly 4bps on the print. Money markets now
price roughly a 60% probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike before
December, down from 68% pre-release. The Reserve Bank of Australia, after three
rate rises earlier this year, still judges the labor market slightly tight and
in its quarterly forecast expects unemployment to rise gradually.
