A report by shipping intelligence firm Kpler points out that the 60-day window set by the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding expired on August 17 without an agreement, extension, or negotiations. Tehran now advocates for a licensing and toll system for the Strait, which Washington has rejected. The memorandum facilitated oil flows but did not restore normal passage through the strait. During the window, approximately 374 million barrels of crude oil were cleared from the Middle East Gulf region, averaging about 6.1 million barrels per day, compared to only 2.3 million barrels per day from April until the signing of the memorandum. This clearance figure refers to non-Iranian Hormuz passage plus net exports from the Gulf of Oman to avoid double counting. However, the ceasefire is far from restoring normal passage through the strait: crude oil exports are only equivalent to about 40% of the 2025 Hormuz average of approximately 15 million barrels per day; more than half of the flow was concentrated in the first three weeks after the agreement took effect; by the end of the agreement, flow had become sporadic and increasingly difficult to track, and was backlogged at key choke points.
