The most critical issue for the technology sector right now is whether the AI ecosystem—including large-scale model providers, AI cloud platforms, hyperscale cloud vendors, and emerging cloud vendors—can generate sufficient revenue and profit to justify the massive capital investment in AI infrastructure. Currently, there are several positive signs:
1. Token data shows that AI demand remains strong. OpenRouter data shows that token usage roughly doubles every 11 weeks, and the current annualized rate of token consumption has exceeded 4500 trillion. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's Asia-Pacific AI application survey shows that AI spending is expected to accelerate by 29% in the next 12 months, reaching approximately $250 billion.
2. Alibaba stated that cloud business revenue growth and profit margins are accelerating; it also reiterated its capital expenditure plan for the next three years and estimated the payback period for related investments to be approximately three years based on current profit margins. JPMorgan analyst Alex Yao predicts that Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth will exceed 50%, while profit margins will continue to improve; he estimates the after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) for new AI capital expenditure projects to be approximately 22%, significantly higher than the capital cost of approximately 10%. (The above views are from a JPMorgan Chase report dated August 21.)
