I. Possible US Sanctions
1. Expanding "Secondary Sanctions"—This is currently the most certain and closely watched direction by the market. Trump has previously explicitly threatened that any country continuing to do business with Iran could face serious economic consequences. India, Gulf states, and other countries and companies doing business with Iran are particularly at risk.
2. Escalating Oil Sanctions
—US sanctions on Iranian oil may extend to downstream buyers and settlement channels. Possible measures include: sanctioning foreign refineries that purchase Iranian crude oil; sanctioning ship owners, insurance companies, and ship management companies that help transport Iranian oil; sanctioning foreign banks that provide settlement for Iranian oil trade; and imposing broader blockades on "shadow fleets" circumventing sanctions.
3. Escalating Financial Sanctions
—The US may target Iranian "shadow banks" and funding channels outside the US dollar, or expand financial sanctions to banks, non-bank financial institutions, currency exchange brokers, gold trading, crypto assets, and offshore accounts—sanctioning the entire financial chain.
4. Further Targeting “Third-Country Aiders”
—The signal from the US is that sanctions are not limited to Iranian companies; foreign companies that help Iran circumvent sanctions will also be targeted. Escalated sanctions may include Iran’s foreign trading partners, foreign banks, and foreign shipping/airline companies.
II. Sanctions Already Taken by the US
1. Freezing Iranian Assets—In November 1979, then-US President Carter issued an executive order freezing the assets of the Iranian government and related entities in the United States.
2. Designating Iran as a State Sponsor of Terrorism
—In the 1980s, the US officially designated Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, marking a significant turning point in its sanctions policy against Iran. Furthermore, the Reagan administration further expanded trade restrictions, prohibiting the US from importing large quantities of Iranian goods.
3. Prohibiting US Companies from Doing Business with Iran
—In the 1990s, the US sanctions policy against Iran underwent its most crucial escalation, shifting from solely sanctioning Iran to sanctioning (US) companies doing business with Iran. The Clinton administration issued an executive order prohibiting US companies from doing business with Iran.
4. Formal Initiation of "Secondary Sanctions"—In 1996, the United States passed the Iran Sanctions Act, imposing sanctions on foreign investment in Iran's energy sector.
5. Nuclear Issue Becomes Core of Sanctions
—In the 2000s, the nuclear issue became the core of US sanctions against Iran. During this period, the US began imposing sanctions on Iran's nuclear facilities, uranium enrichment, nuclear materials, and missile development. In 2006, the US also pushed for international sanctions against Iran's nuclear program through the UN Security Council.
6. Financial Stifling Begins
—In 2010, the US expanded its sanctions on Iran's financial system, stipulating that foreign banks assisting Iranian entities in sanctioned transactions would also be subject to US sanctions. In 2011, the US further imposed sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran and Iranian oil revenues.
7. Expanding Sanctions to More Sectors—From 2012 to 2015, the US expanded sanctions from oil to the entire economic system, imposing sanctions on Iran's oil, petrochemical, shipping, insurance, precious metals, automotive, mining, and financial sectors.
8. Designating the Revolutionary Guard as a Terrorist Organization – In 2019, the Trump administration directly designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a foreign terrorist organization. The Revolutionary Guard, along with its affiliated companies, financial networks, shipping networks, and oil revenues, became targets of US action.
