Goldman Sachs states that there are many ways to measure inflation expectations among four key groups (households, businesses, professional forecasting agencies, and investors). While market and forecasting agency indicators remain stable, what about the expectations of businesses and consumers, which are most relevant to economic decision-making?
Inflation over the past five years has indeed significantly pushed up long-term expectations and their sensitivity to actual inflation, making them higher than in 2019. However, Goldman Sachs' analytical model shows that, considering the "memory" of more than a decade of low inflation, current inflation expectations and sensitivity are lower than in the mid-2000s, only slightly higher than when inflation remained at 2% since 2009. Furthermore, high inflation has a greater impact on the expectations and sensitivity of younger respondents than on older respondents, reflecting the influence of the memory of prolonged low inflation.
(This constitutes a significant expectation gap. In current market and Federal Reserve discussions, "prolonged high inflation could lead to expectation decoupling" is one of the core risks, but Goldman Sachs' model results are more moderate, directly challenging the more pessimistic narrative.)
