The current Iranian stock market is more accurately described as a "strong asset revaluation rally in a high-inflation environment" rather than a traditional "economic fundamentals bull market." The key factors to watch are:
① Whether the TEDPIX can hold above 6 million points;
② Whether the rial continues to depreciate;
③ Whether Iranian inflation continues to approach 90%;
④ Whether gold/USD continues to rise;
⑤ Whether the actual profitability of export-oriented companies in petrochemicals, steel, and mining has improved.
If we see: a rising stock market + a stable rial + declining inflation + improved corporate profitability, that would be a very strong signal of economic recovery. If it's merely: a rising stock market + a falling rial + rising gold + inflation continuing to approach 90%, then this rally should be understood more as capital flight from cash, an asset revaluation to hedge against currency depreciation and inflation.
