Sumit Ritolia, chief analyst at shipping intelligence firm Kpler, wrote that refining capacity in the Middle East remains far below pre-war levels, currently at approximately 7.3 million barrels per day, compared to 9.9 million barrels per day in February 2026. This situation is due to damage to refining facilities and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is expected to gradually improve starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, but a full recovery to pre-war levels is unlikely before the second quarter of 2027. Short-term recovery is primarily a logistical issue; a full return to normalcy involves capacity recovery. Our basic assumption is that transportation will remain disrupted throughout 2026, with restrictions in place until the end of the fourth quarter. After improved transportation and an initial rebound in refining production, damaged capacity will become the primary constraint. Full recovery to pre-war levels is not expected until the second quarter of 2027.
