According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler, Saudi Arabia's refining capacity fell to approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in August. Due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, oil transport from the east has been hampered, forcing refineries to rely more heavily on the Red Sea route, which has a refining capacity of approximately 1.87 million barrels per day. However, security concerns in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have reduced the flexibility of this alternative route, leaving Saudi oil exports at risk in both the east and west. The Jizan refinery's 400,000 barrels per day capacity remains shut down following the Houthi attacks in July and subsequent attacks on related infrastructure, while the 200,000 barrels per day atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and related facilities of SATORP, a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Total, have been undergoing maintenance since April and require further delays. Kpler expects SATORP to gradually resume production in the latter half of the fourth quarter, supporting a recovery of Saudi refining capacity to 2.45 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. By the first quarter of 2027, as the remaining damaged capacity returns to normal operating levels, output will be closer to pre-war levels, at which point more significant growth is expected.
