Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler shows that Iran's refining capacity has declined from 2.45 million barrels per day before the war to around 2.2 million barrels per day currently. This decline is due to damage to refinery facilities and restrictions on naphtha and fuel oil exports. To address the reduced production, refineries have increased the proportion of naphtha in gasoline and adjusted fuel oil distribution methods. However, limited export channels continue to constrain the recovery of refining capacity. Kpler predicts that refining capacity will recover to around 2.3 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter, and is expected to rise further by the first quarter of 2027.
