Swedish bank believes the so-called "Schrödinger's Strait" refers to the fact that while the Strait of Hormuz is nominally open, actual commercial shipping remains nearly stagnant: only five commodity ships passed through on August 25, far below the previous 10-day average of 15; however, the "dark ships" with AIS disabled mean that publicly available shipping data cannot fully reflect the true flow.
Oil prices did not experience the runaway surge initially feared by the market, mainly not due to the recovery of transportation, but rather because the release of inventories, contraction in demand, and alternative supply absorbed the shock. Economies like the US released strategic reserves, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE bypassed the strait via pipelines and sea transshipment. However, this resilience is wearing down the buffer: IEA data shows that global observable inventories continued to decline sharply from March to May; the US SPR has fallen from approximately 415 million barrels at the beginning of the war to 289.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1982.
The real tension has shifted from crude oil to refined products such as diesel. With Middle Eastern refineries not yet fully recovered and Russia restricting diesel exports, the US diesel crack spread briefly exceeded $100 per barrel in August.
