1. Soaring Energy Prices
Oil prices surged due to disruptions in Gulf oil production and restrictions on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices briefly surpassed $120 per barrel in April, while the average price for 2026 remains around $90 per barrel, significantly higher than last year's approximately $70. With the approaching Northern Hemisphere winter, further disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with risks to Russian energy infrastructure, could push up heating oil prices and exacerbate inflationary pressures.
2. AI Boom Supports Stock Markets
Global stock markets were largely unaffected by the war, with trillions of dollars continuing to flow into the artificial intelligence sector, providing support. The MSCI World Index, covering 47 countries, reached a record high market capitalization of $105 trillion this month, an increase of nearly $7 trillion since the outbreak of the war, representing a 9% rise. However, Gulf region stock markets underperformed.
3. Seeking Safe-Haven Assets
Since the outbreak of the war, assets typically favored by investors during turbulent times, such as high-rated government bonds, gold, and the US dollar, have failed to consistently fulfill their role as traditional safe-haven assets. Analysts say the dollar has risen 1.4% against a basket of major currencies since the start of the war, but this largely reflects the weakening of the yen. US Treasury bonds, a traditional pillar of investment portfolios, have seen their total returns fall by 3.5%. Gold prices fell nearly 25% between the outbreak of the war and July. However, gold prices have rebounded by more than 15% this month due to renewed market concerns about the erosion of the dollar's purchasing power.
4. Food and Fertilizer
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also disrupted fertilizer shipments, a crucial input for global food production. Analysts say the strong El Niño phenomenon, coupled with renewed disruptions to food shipments related to the war in Ukraine, poses an increasing threat to agricultural output. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global food prices rose to their highest level in more than three years in July. However, experts warn that a large part of the impact of this shock has not yet fully materialized. The FAO warns the world may be facing a new wave of food inflation.
5. The Gulf region has been severely impacted. The war has had a significant direct impact on the Gulf region's economy. Saudi exports fell by 10% between the first and second quarters. JPMorgan Chase estimates that Dubai's real estate sales have plummeted by 70% to 80%; Oxford Economics warns that Qatar's economy may shrink by nearly 30% this year due to damage to its Ras Laffan gas facilities. Both Qatari and UAE stock markets have fallen by approximately 14%, lagging behind global stock market performance by more than 20 percentage points.
