According to Bloomberg, investors have recently been buying downside protection on U.S. Treasuries: one transaction paid approximately $6.5 million to cover a scenario where the 30-year yield rises to 5.7% by the end of November; CME open interest data shows that on the same day, there were also new positions targeting a 10-year yield rising to 4.85% and a 5-year yield rising to 4.6%. The strike price represents the tail insurance coverage, not a market consensus forecast.
Because Treasury futures prices move inversely to yields, the "call minus put" skewness in the chart remains negative, meaning put options are more expensive, and investors are paying higher premiums for a continued rise in yields. CME research shows that extreme negative skewness has historically been associated with subsequent weak performance in U.S. Treasuries, but it is not a definitive signal.
