Bernstein believes the market may have over-interpreted Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as a clear "hawkish signal." Warsh actually emphasized reducing forward guidance, meaning the Fed may be less likely to hint at interest rate paths in advance. Therefore, it will be more difficult for the market to judge whether to raise or lower rates based on a single speech, and policy expectations may be more prone to significant fluctuations.
Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is entering monetary policy discussions. Warsh stated that more than half of this year's capital expenditure growth may come from AI construction. In the short term, AI investment will increase demand for capital, electricity, and equipment; in the long term, it may change the potential growth rate of the economy by improving productivity. Therefore, the Fed needs to assess both impacts simultaneously.
Bernstein did not negate the "currency devaluation trade" because of this. His assessment is that the US's high debt, high deficit, and rising interest burden remain structural problems; if the Treasury continues to intervene in long-term yields, scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin may still receive support. (The above views are from a JPMorgan Chase report dated September 2nd.)
