JPMorgan Chase's market intelligence team points out that in the past 23 US midterm elections, the president's party has lost an average of about 27 House seats and 3 Senate seats. Following this pattern, a scenario in 2026 is more likely to emerge where the Democrats win the House and the Republicans retain control of the Senate. As of September 2nd, betting markets gave these probabilities of approximately 85% and 53%, respectively.
However, even if the House turns blue, research cited by JPMorgan Chase suggests that the majority advantage may be limited. Currently, there are only about 20-30 truly competitive House seats, far fewer than the approximately 90 seats 20 years ago; the redrawing of districts also gives the Republicans about a 15-seat advantage over the old map. The Democrats are currently estimated to ultimately control about 220-230 seats, still a significant distance from a large-scale "blue wave."
