According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, over the past 20 years, there has been a clear upward revision pattern to the initial August non-farm payrolls figures. Between 2006 and 2025, 14 out of 20 August non-farm payrolls figures were revised upwards after two subsequent revisions, representing an upward revision rate of 70%, with an average revision of +52,300 and a median revision of +61,500. However, this pattern has reversed significantly in recent years: from 2022 to 2025, the initial August figures were revised downwards for four consecutive years, with a downward revision of 64,000 in 2024 and 48,000 in 2025. Looking at a horizontal comparison across months, the revision characteristics are even more pronounced in August: from 2006 to 2025, the average subsequent upward revision of August non-farm payrolls was the highest of the year, followed by November at 48,100, September at 26,900, and December at 19,800.
